2017 in Retrospect - Market Review
A better than expected 2017 appears to be transitioning into an optimistic start for 2018. 2017 will be remembered for continually reaching new highs, but may go down in the record book for its lack of volatility.
The Dow ended the year at 24,719.22 -- pushed to these levels by optimism of a tax reform plan and foreign investors pouring money into the market. Since the 2016 presidential election, the Dow has set 84 new record closing highs, leaving the Dow up 25.08% for the year, and the S&P 500 up 19.42%.
In 2016, few people expected returns of these levels against a backdrop of political infighting in Washington, geopolitical tensions, and a tighter monetary policy. Stack on top of those issues the possibility that 2017 could also set a record for the number of natural disasters totaling $1B (tornados, floods, hurricanes, and wildfires) -- and the gains and level of stability are surprising.
The lack of volatility will set 2017 apart. We are in the longest period in S&P 500 history without a 3%+ correction, with no move of that size since November 4, 2016.
Our domestic markets are not alone. Global markets have also turned in a great year of performance.
Trying to predict where the market will end 2018 is like throwing darts. While gains of the magnitudes seen in 2017 are unlikely to be repeated, conditions look good for further market growth.
Growth in the U.S. economy increased in 2017 with back-to-back quarters of greater than 3% GDP growth. Employment also improved, with claims near record lows, unemployment at 4.1% and solid job growth according to the Department of Labor. Consumer confidence is on the rise and the Index of Leading Economic Indicators continues to rise. Housing, both with housing starts and existing home sales, in on the rise according to U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the National Association of Realtors.
We see nothing on the horizon which should disrupt the bull market, short of some significant external factor. That being said, now is not the time to become complacent. A lack of volatility in 2017 could precede the kind of volatility we have become accustomed to in the past ten to fifteen years. Discipline is important looking ahead.
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