Category: Outlook
2024 Review and 2025 Outlook
By Chad Roope, CFA®, Chief Investment Officer 2024 was a great year for the U.S. economy and equity markets. A strong economy, led by strong labor markets and significant investments in Artificial Intelligence, equated to double digit corporate earnings growth and thereby strong equity market performance. The U.S. was the clear economic leader globally and was why we had a strong overweight to quality, U.S. large-cap stocks all year. This overweight and our focus on active asset allocation, fundamental research and timely trade communications led to solid performance in our client portfolios in 2024, with most of our strategies strongly outperforming their benchmarks. Our proven process and seasoned team of Chartered Financial Analysts stand ready to navigate what is likely to be a dynamic environment in 2025. We think 2025 may prove to be a more volatile year given several uncertainties and rich starting valuation levels, but we think the year should prove to be a solid overall. Below are our key views: We expect U.S. outperformance compared to the rest of the world to continue amid solid economic growth, strong labor markets, lower inflation levels, a supportive Federal Reserve, and the potential for tax cuts and deregulatory policies. We continue to prefer large-cap, high quality U.S. equities as we think this is where the strongest overall earnings growth will continue to be. In fixed income, we are prioritizing higher income, shorter duration exposures t
2024 Second Half Outlook
News headlines have been volatile this year with many geopolitical issues, economic worries, and, most recently, President Biden exiting his re-election campaign. Nevertheless, the stock market has done well and continued to “climb the wall of worry.” This reality serves as a good reminder that ignoring most news headlines and political noise is typically the best investment strategy. Since the start of the year, we have maintained a positive outlook and positioning, especially with U.S. large-cap stocks. That is because of our view that AI-related investments, onshoring, and cooling inflation will benefit earnings for these types of companies the most. Despite some choppiness, the data tells us this scenario is playing out as expected. With manufacturing surveys softening and business confidence muted, markets may begin to over-discount a sharper slowdown. Nevertheless, we continue to believe that the pace of economic growth is moderating at a goldilocks pace, and inflation is cooling sufficiently to allow the Federal Reserve (Fed) to begin easing before the end of the year. We expect U.S. growth to be close to trend at about 2.0% by the fourth quarter and inflation to continue cooling toward the Fed’s 2% target by mid-2025. This should be a good environment to support our view on equities overall and offer a positive environment for bonds. Outside the U.S., the European economy is expanding once again, activity in China i
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