Category: Outlook
2024 Second Half Outlook
News headlines have been volatile this year with many geopolitical issues, economic worries, and, most recently, President Biden exiting his re-election campaign. Nevertheless, the stock market has done well and continued to “climb the wall of worry.” This reality serves as a good reminder that ignoring most news headlines and political noise is typically the best investment strategy. Since the start of the year, we have maintained a positive outlook and positioning, especially with U.S. large-cap stocks. That is because of our view that AI-related investments, onshoring, and cooling inflation will benefit earnings for these types of companies the most. Despite some choppiness, the data tells us this scenario is playing out as expected. With manufacturing surveys softening and business confidence muted, markets may begin to over-discount a sharper slowdown. Nevertheless, we continue to believe that the pace of economic growth is moderating at a goldilocks pace, and inflation is cooling sufficiently to allow the Federal Reserve (Fed) to begin easing before the end of the year. We expect U.S. growth to be close to trend at about 2.0% by the fourth quarter and inflation to continue cooling toward the Fed’s 2% target by mid-2025. This should be a good environment to support our view on equities overall and offer a positive environment for bonds. Outside the U.S., the European economy is expanding once again, activity in China i
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