Category: 2020
Economic Outlook
The second quarter of 2020 was one for the history books. COVID-19 caused a global pandemic that led to deaths in more Americans than the wars of Vietnam, Korea, and the Gulf Wars combined, and led to “stay-at-home” mandates that caused a sharp, deep recession in Q2 when nearly 20% of Americans were unemployed.1 In May and early June, after many thought the curve of new coronavirus cases had been successfully flattened, economic reopening occurred across the country. Within weeks the virus spread, however, and the US entered the July 4th weekend reporting record numbers of new cases of over 50k/day.1 This is double the rate seen in mid-May with total cases now totaling 2.8m, up from 200k cases at the end of Q1.1 Reopening plans have been rolled back in many states. Generally, the level of uncertainty regarding the virus is growing, not falling. Despite this environment, risk assets enjoyed strong rallies throughout the quarter, leading to discussions of the disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street. Backed by massive monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve, fiscal stimulus from the Treasury, some early success in the reopening and hopes for a vaccine, US stocks had their best quarter since the fourth quarter of 2008.1 US stocks were again led by the large-cap Technology and other popular growth stocks, leading to concerns of narrowing market leadership that has some resemblance to the dot.com period of the late-90’s. After falling 35% i
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