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December Market Commentary

Posted By Lineweaver Financial Group
December 10, 2024 Category: Market Commentary, Jobs, Market

This month we are focusing on the U.S. labor market.  While having cooled from its red-hot state, it has settled into a relatively healthy position. Following a month of hiring disruptions due to hurricanes and strikes, businesses added 227,000 jobs in November. However, the uneven nature of recent job growth has led many to question the true health of the labor market. Employment growth in 2024 has been concentrated in a few key sectors, primarily health care and government, which have contributed 41% and 21% of this year’s job gains, respectively. Healthcare’s hiring dominance seems less concerning as the sector is still addressing pandemic-related backlogs. However, employment growth dominated by the public sector, which tends to see increased hiring later in the economic cycle, may be viewed as a warning sign. That said, there are important nuances to consider. Government employment as a sector currently accounts for 14.7% of total payrolls. Of the 21% growth referenced above, 90% has come from state and local levels, which appears less troublesome. Moreover, the sector’s share of payrolls remains below its pre-pandemic (2014 – 2019) average of 15.3%, suggesting its recent outsized growth reflects the continued uneven normalization of the labor market post-pandemic. Outside of these two sectors, sluggish manufacturing activity has been a headwind. Still, some cyclical sectors, including construction, leisure, and transportation, have se

November Market Commentary

Posted By Lineweaver Financial Group
November 13, 2024 Category: Market Commentary

As the dust settles post-election, investors are keenly assessing what the next four years might bring. Despite the policy uncertainties that accompany a unified Republican government, the economic outlook remains largely stable.  Additionally, market fundamentals look strong and matter more for returns, especially over the long term.  The U.S. economy continues to be a straight A student, with GDP growth above trend (3Q24: 2.8% q/q saar), full employment (October unemployment rate: 4.1%), and low inflation (September CPI: 2.4% y/y), as shown in the chart below.  Consumers are maintaining their spending habits despite dissatisfaction with mortgage rates, which are higher than before the pandemic, and the price increases of the past few years. However, this confidence may be shifting, as evidenced by the Consumer Confidence Index's significant monthly increase—the largest since March 2021—rising to 108.7 in October from 99.2 in September.  Notably, all five components of the index improved, indicating growing confidence in future job availability and stock market gains.   This economic environment is favorable for equity markets.  Declining interest rates and real wage gains are positive for consumer spending, and S&P 500 operating margins are 8% above long-term averages, showcasing the dynamism of U.S. companies. Additionally, secular trends continue to encourage corporate investment. Besides high valuations, there are few

Market Commentary

Posted By Lineweaver Financial Group
October 03, 2024 Category: General, Stock, Finance, Market Commentary

We have been highly constructive on U.S. large-cap stocks in our investment strategies since October 2023. We remain optimistic generally into 2025, but as we enter fall, we think it is prudent to be slightly more cautious as some facts have changed over the last several weeks. First, our analysis of earnings surprises and estimate revisions has detected some cooling trends, suggesting potential moderation of the earnings advantages that catalyzed much of the rally this year so far. Our research also reveals the autumn period in October through mid-November in presidential election years has tended to be more volatile than usual, with increased vulnerability to downside moves. The elevated uncertainty surrounding the upcoming election adds additional complexity. Given the sharp divide in the parties’ expected policy and the expectations of a close race, many real economy actors are delaying major capital allocations and business-defining bets to after election night. In this state of uncertainty, any lack of market liquidity has the potential to trigger volatility. This may be compounded if the final outcome of the election is delayed, as we saw in 2020. Finally, recent changes in market temperament have also caught our attention and give us pause. Relatively tranquil gains in large-cap stocks for most of the year have been disrupted recently with larger single-day selloffs, rotations, and V-shaped snapbacks, which may be signs of a market more susceptible to headlin

2018 Q1 Market Commentary

Posted By Lineweaver Financial Group
January 09, 2018 Category: Market Commentary

Global financial markets continued to move higher, supported by an improving outlook for global economic growth. Volatility remained near record low levels despite persistent geopolitical tensions, tightening U.S. monetary policy and particularly destructive natural disasters. We present a few highlights from 4Q17 below: U.S. equity markets continued their bull market run during the fourth quarter as the Trump Administration’s tax reform proposal took a step closer to approval, offering a boost to overall investor sentiment. The S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite each hit all-time highs during the quarter. On the economic front, preliminary estimates indicate third quarter GDP grew at the fastest pace in three years amid strong business investment.   Developed international equity markets were also positive during the fourth quarter, driven by improving earnings growth and general economic expansion. Strong gains came out of the Pacific region, while Europe lagged. On the political front, British Prime Minister Theresa May suffered a major setback as parliament voted to give lawmakers a final say on any Brexit agreement. In the emerging markets, returns were propelled higher by solid performances from China, India and South Korea. Year-to-date, emerging markets equities are the best performing asset class.   Within fixed income, results were mixed during the fourth quarter as the Federal Reserve raised int