The COVID-19 virus has made a brief global recession likely. While the duration of the virus pandemic is unpredictable, policy stimulus, pent-up demand and a lack of major imbalances argue for a solid upswing when the virus threat clears. The containment measures being taken across the globe to combat the virus will have a large economic impact. Global gross domestic product (GDP) growth will probably be negative in the first quarter and will enter the second quarter at risk of contracting further. Provided the virus is transitory—perhaps contained in the second quarter—the global economy should be poised to rebound in the second half of 2020. The combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus on top of last year’s global central-bank easing, in addition to the reduction in China-U.S. trade tensions, argues for a solid recovery when the virus threat recedes. In the U.S., the government’s virus containment measures mean a technical recession—negative GDP growth in Q1 and Q2—seems likely. Fiscal policy will be important in helping to offset the recession. The economic impact of the virus may turn out larger than expected. The shock to consumer and business confidence could generate a self-sustaining economic downturn. A re-run of the 2008 financial crisis seems unlikely. Tier 1 capital ratios for large U.S. banks are significantly improved from where they were in 2007 and should cushion against the risk of a severe draw
With the media being such a large part of society, it’s hard to know when information is accurate or when it’s a fabrication. This is extremely common in the world of health, and we often receive conflicting information about the best way to maintain a healthy lifestyle. Below are just a few health and nutrition tips backed by science for these difficult times. 1. Avoid sugary beverages It’s often convenient to grab a sugary drink when we are in a rush, or even when we are out to dinner. But consuming these drinks can have consequences, such as type 2 diabetes and heart disease. It’s best to drink something that is low in sugar. 2. Don’t fear coffee While too much of anything is never a good thing, coffee is actually high in antioxidants and can help reduce the risk of Parkinson’s and Alzheimer’s diseases. 3. Get enough sleep Sleep is extremely important for our mind and body in order to function properly. When our bodies don’t get enough sleep it can drive insulin resistance, disrupt appetite hormones, and reduce physical and mental performance. 4. Drink some water, especially before meals Drinking enough water throughout the day can have numerous benefits. Some studies have even shown that it can increase your metabolism. Another study found that drinking water 30 minutes before each meal increased weight loss. 5. Use plenty of herbs and spices Due to powerful benefits, you should try to inclu
First, let me say the obvious: these are truly unprecedented times we are living through. Second, we appreciate how calm our clients have been. While everyone is feeling the anxiety and challenges of these times, I am truly impressed by everyone that I have spoken with. Please know that we will continue to closely monitor the markets, the economy, and your portfolio, and take action when we need to in order to best protect your hard-earned money. One of the conversations I am having with many of my clients is simply a reminder that the equities part of your portfolio is really meant for a 3-5 year timeline. For immediate money needs, we’ve layered in other strategies that are much less volatile, and which should offer you protection in the short term. We often hear from clients that other advisors that they’ve had are more reactive, while we strive to be more proactive. We think that was the case this time as well. To take advantage of the strong market in 2019, we rebalanced in early January and again in March as noted by Jerry’s article on the front page. We’ve also been making an effort to send regular communications about the markets, your portfolio, and most recently the CARES Act during the last several weeks. We’ve also been called on by channels 5 (WEWS) and 8 (FOX) to help clarify confusion around the markets and the financial ramifications of the coronavirus pandemic. Be sure to follow our website and blog for regular updates, a
The CARES Act was signed into law on March 27th, 2020, and is designed to ease the financial burden placed on individuals, businesses, and other organizations created by the coronavirus, otherwise known as COVID-19. The bill separates into two distinct areas – programs and protections for individuals, and programs and protections for businesses and other organizations. Below, we’ll outline the main outcomes of the bill in each area. Keep in mind that this legislation has just passed, and everyone is rushing to interpret the 830-page bill. It’s likely that the outcomes and interpretations by the various government agencies may change in the coming months, but here’s what we know now. Programs and Protections for Individuals Direct Payments: Americans who pay taxes will receive a one-time direct deposit of up to $1,200, and married couples will receive $2,400. In addition, you can receive $500 per child. For individuals, payments are phased out starting at $75,000 in adjusted gross income (AGI), and individuals whose adjusted gross income is more than $99,000 will not receive a stimulus check. The phase-out for couples begins at $150,000 and couples with an AGI of more than $198,000 will not receive a check. The number of dependent children you have can raise these amounts. These amounts are based on your 2019 taxes, or, if you have not yet filed for 2019, your 2018 taxes. People who receive Social Security are still eligible. They don't need to